tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19130340538373117082024-02-08T11:59:00.015-08:00Music on MarketsOne guys musings on retirement, investing, markets and the economy.bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-20630527228441928282010-02-10T07:08:00.000-08:002010-02-10T07:08:42.318-08:00Back from Vacation and February resultsVacation was great! Barb and I went on a cruise with Barb's sister and her husband.<div><br />
</div><div>Lots of markets moves occured while we away, that resulting in stop triggering in HGI, PIO, PSP, TUR, IXN, and IDX. As of this morning all the all positions sold off are down a combined <span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: red;">1.95%</span> from where we sold at.</div><div><br />
</div><div>For January, we were down <span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: red;">4.00%</span> for the month. The S&P 500 beat us a again being only down <span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: red;">3.65%</span>. I had trouble getting end of the month numbers for the S&P 1200, so I am comparing against the similar MSCI All World index, which was down <span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: red;">4.38%</span> for the month.</div>bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-90278903423222502752010-01-28T08:17:00.000-08:002010-01-28T08:17:49.344-08:00EWC Trailing stop triggeredThe trailing stop on the Canadian ETF, EWC, triggered this morning at $24.6905. This represents a loss of -6.46% on the position.bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-10690544194899952922010-01-28T08:13:00.000-08:002010-01-28T08:13:08.321-08:00APPL Stopped outThe trailing stop on Apple trigger this morning at $200/share. This was a carried over position, and reflect 49.6% gain on the position.bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-37656006322579908632010-01-27T07:48:00.000-08:002010-01-27T07:48:57.276-08:00PUW Stopped outThis morning the trailing stop was trigger on PUW, a progressive energy ETF, @ $22.85. This represents a loss of -5.31% on the position.bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-79759018412611070822010-01-27T06:39:00.000-08:002010-01-27T06:39:51.362-08:00EWA Stopped out<span style="font-family: inherit;">The trailing stop for the Autralian ETF, EWA, was trigger today @</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 2px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 2px;"><b><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">$21.7705. This represents loss of -1.87% on the position.</span></span></b></span>bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-34183122468279431012010-01-26T06:45:00.000-08:002010-01-26T06:45:09.853-08:00EWW Stopped outThe trailing stop for EWW, the Mexico ETF, as trigger this morning resulting in an aprox. -7.5% loss on the position.bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-70218531270548533322010-01-25T06:18:00.000-08:002010-01-25T06:18:30.332-08:00Week 3Week 3 was a rough week for everyone. We ended the week at -2.24% for the month, while the S&P 500 TR stands at -2.01% for the month, and S&P Global 1200 TR stands a -1.89% for the month.<br />
<br />
We had several trailing stops trigger last week and will be looking a renewing position a lower level.bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-10469475822607109422010-01-22T12:29:00.000-08:002010-01-22T12:29:09.333-08:00On the radarWith the trailing stop trigger on the BKF, the BRIC ETF, this morning, I will be looking either at getting back into BKF at a lower level, or creating my own mix using various country specific ETFs.<br />
<br />
The below article has a good rundown of BRIC country specific ETFs.<br />
<a href="http://www.etftrends.com/2009/05/ultimate-guide-bric-etfs.html">http://www.etftrends.com/2009/05/ultimate-guide-bric-etfs.html</a><br />
<br />
Highlites<br />
Brazil - EWZ<br />
Russia - RSX<br />
India - EPI or MINDX<br />
China - FXI<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
I'm also looking at adding a country like Vietnam, to go along with the Indonesia/Turkey vibe, via the VNM ETF.<br />
<br />
Korea might also be interesting to go along with the basket of more developed country, via the EWK ETF or the MAKOX mutual fund.bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-75005453547176708862010-01-22T07:26:00.000-08:002010-01-22T07:26:23.747-08:00SLV Stopped outSLV trailing stop triggered @ $16.581 this morning. This represents a loss 2.51% on the position.bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-30491755091382893832010-01-22T07:07:00.000-08:002010-01-22T07:07:52.057-08:00BKF Stopped OutBKF was stopped out at $43.05 this morning, representing a 4.38% loss on the position.bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-76868383521940027382010-01-22T06:40:00.000-08:002010-01-22T06:40:33.872-08:00Another stopPBD was stopped out today @ $15.6713. This represent about loss of 6.15% on the position.bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-71451895182250643482010-01-21T07:25:00.000-08:002010-01-21T07:25:33.555-08:00XME Stopped OutXME trailing stop triggered today @ $53.42. We made just 0.65% on the position.bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-9806136658139435022010-01-20T07:41:00.000-08:002010-01-20T07:41:51.386-08:00GDX Stopped OutThe gold miners ETF, GDX was stop out, with a -4.33% loss on the position. It was a small position, but it's a loss none the less.bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-64336469219165963652010-01-20T06:11:00.000-08:002010-01-20T06:11:38.596-08:00Stopped out of FAS and ThoughtsYesterday I got stop out of FAS for a small -2.7% loss on the position. The position only represented ~2% of the overall portfolio so the lose was small.<br />
<br />
I should note that after being stopped out, financial stocks (which FAS tracks, with leverage) took off to close up ~5% from where I sold it. DRAT!!<br />
<br />
In other news, I'm think up up some exposure to two sectors, US Financials and Brazil, via the XLF and EWZ ETFs. I'm not ready to pull the trigger yet, as I'll probably be looking for a good entry spot.bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-74800007350529868342010-01-19T06:09:00.000-08:002010-01-19T06:09:05.390-08:00Week 2I'm not going to go into the numbers for each individual equity this week , as it somewhat time consuming.<br />
<br />
Sufficed to say it was a good for bonds, and thus bad for TBT (-4.03%), the inverse bond ETF. It was also a tough week for gold miners (GDX, -4.86%) and minerals and miners generally (XME, -5.70%). Lone bright spots were utilities (XLU, +0.52%), Private equity (PSP, +0.63%), and Indonesia (+0.45%).<br />
<br />
What it all means is that to good team lost this week and for the month is +1.77%, below both the S&P 500 TR, at +1.95, and the global S&P 1200, at 2.22%.<br />
<br />
We'll get 'em this week!bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-57272537923227615482010-01-12T12:54:00.000-08:002010-01-12T12:54:26.384-08:00Quick Trade - FASMade a small trade today on the big down day. Pick up a small bit of FAS, and slapped a 3% trailing stop on it. We'll see how it works out tomorrow.bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-45494887926460181462010-01-11T06:39:00.000-08:002010-01-11T06:39:26.403-08:002010 - Week 1 and tightening the screwsWell, so far January of 2010 has been pretty good. We finished last week up 3.12%, better than both tracking indexes (the S&P 500 TR was up 2.74%, while S&P Global 1200 TR was up 2.85%).<br />
<br />
Before I go into the weekly performance break down, I'd like to mention that I plan tighten the screws a little bit. Right now I have a 12% stop loss set on those investments outside of the 401(k) funds. I plan on migrating those to a slightly tighter 10%, with even further tightening possible.<br />
<br />
Looking at the returns below, it was a big week for Metals and Mining, as well as for the emerging markets of Turkey and Indonesia. Overall, everything was up and up, except for one fund XLU, which is a utility ETF.<br />
<br />
Weekly Returns are as follows<br />
IRAs<br />
XME +13.80%<br />
SLV +9.74%<br />
TUR +8.52%<br />
IDX +8.18%<br />
GDX +7.86%<br />
PUW +7.48%<br />
PSP +5.87%<br />
EWA +5.29%<br />
EWW +5.04%<br />
PBD +4.62%<br />
GLD +3.77%<br />
PIO +3.74%<br />
EWC +3.68%<br />
BKF +3.66%<br />
VTI +2.96%<br />
HGI +2.79%<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">IXN +1.96%<br />
</div>TBT +1.50%<br />
VIPSX +0.64%<br />
AAPL +0.59%<br />
PCY +0.51%<br />
XLU -1.00%<br />
<br />
401(k)s<br />
FMCSX +5.47%<br />
FIIAX +3.60%<br />
PSVIX + 3.05%<br />
FDVAX +2.97%<br />
FDVIX +2.71%<br />
FDGRX +2.59%<br />
LSVAX +2.35%<br />
FNIAX +1.74%bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-24834937782709976102010-01-05T07:06:00.000-08:002010-01-05T07:06:24.094-08:00Preliminary 2009 ResultsThough I like to go by the month end statement, I do have preliminary result for the 2009 season. Overall we did pretty well with a 29.43% return for the year. This was almost a full 3% better than the S&P 500 with finished the year at 26.45%. We did lag the global benchmark, the S&P 1200, which finish at 31.69%, by more than 2%. So some good, some bad. Below are the "lifetime" stats.<br />
<div><br />
</div><div>Year Music's S&P 500 S&P 1200<br />
2007 15.34% 5.49% 10.23%<br />
2008 -45.55% -37.88% -40.68%<br />
2009 29.43% 26.45% 31.69%<br />
<br />
</div>bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-4905419551916624652009-12-28T11:49:00.000-08:002009-12-28T11:54:47.951-08:00The 2010 Mix - More ThoughtsThough I'm generally pretty happy with the <a href="http://musiconmarkets.blogspot.com/2009/12/getting-ready-for-2010.html">new portfolio for 2010</a>, there are a couple of things I'm thinking about in regards to it.<br />
<br />
<br />
<ul><li>Do I have enough money allocated to cash? Right now we are sitting at ~6.6%. That seems a little low to me. Even if Apple is sold (which I'm not hoping for), that will put me at about 11% cash position. Is this enough to take advantage of opportunities that may arise?</li>
<li>What is the correct manner to use stop with the portfolio? Are trailing stops better than normal one? What percentage should the stops be set at? Should it be the same value for everything? Am I prepared to lose 10%, or 15% through the use of stops. I guess I would be if the market drops more than the stop.</li>
</ul>bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-23963156452630875202009-12-24T07:13:00.000-08:002009-12-28T11:38:54.426-08:00Getting Ready for 2010I know it's been a long time since my last post. I've been spending a lot of thinking about both my lack of investing direction and the direction of the global economy (and markets) for the next year. <br />
<br />
One big problem that I have, is that I read too much. I subscribe to a number of financial/economic/investing blogs and while I can't read every post that shows up in Google Reader, I tend to think I can get a general feel. The one thing that has become apparent to me is that nobody really knows what is going to happen! The other big problems that I seem to find myself having is my general pessimism and my fear of another of a another big tumble.<br />
<br />
So where does that leave me? Well, I've sat down and tried to think about more general ideas about where things are going and tried to shake find constructive ways to deal with the fear and pessimism.<br />
<br />
Here are my few general ideas I've come up with:<br />
<br />
<br />
<ol><li>Interest rates in the US are at all time lows. In fact the Fed rate is effectively at zero! So I think that interest rates will eventually go up. That means that bond yields will likely also go up and bond prices down.</li>
<li>The low interest rates seem to be indicative of the US government trying to inflate their way out of their current problems. Basically, if you are a huge debtor, inflation is good for you because it make your debt essentially smaller. So inflation will soon be an issue. This means that "stuff" like metals (precious and otherwise), oil, agricultural product, ect. will be more expensive and the people (ie countries) that produce them this "stuff" will be more profitable.</li>
<li>Oil and gas are in this "stuff" class, and as they get more expensive, alternative energy will become an important and necessary area.</li>
<li>There are a number of up and coming countries around the world who are very open to new business and so far seem well governed. These tend to have large populations that will soon what all thing we take for granted like cars, cell phones, resturants, clean water, ect.</li>
</ol>Most investing will be based on one or more of these 4 central themes.<br />
<div><br />
</div><div>As I mentioned above, I am horribly afraid of another deep loss. To help take some of the emotion out when I should sell, I plan to use Stops and Trailing Stops to help set some trigger on when to sell.<br />
</div><div><br />
</div><div>So, on to the investments:<br />
</div><div></div><br />
<table><tbody>
<tr><td>Ticker<br />
</td><td>Description<br />
</td><td>Allocation<br />
</td><td>Theme(s)<br />
</td><td>Notes<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>BKF<br />
</td><td>BRIC ETF<br />
</td><td>7%<br />
</td><td>#4<br />
</td><td>General Exposure to Brazil, Russia, India and China<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>EWA<br />
</td><td>Australia ETF<br />
</td><td>4%<br />
</td><td>#2<br />
</td><td>Australia seems to be well governed and they are a big producer of "stuff"<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>EWC<br />
</td><td>Canada ETF<br />
</td><td>4%<br />
</td><td>#2<br />
</td><td>Again, well-governed (for the most part) and a big "stuff" producer<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>EWW<br />
</td><td>Mexico ETF<br />
</td><td>4%<br />
</td><td>#2 and #4<br />
</td><td>A "stuff" producer, that finally seems to have figured out they need to deal with gangs<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>GDX<br />
</td><td>Gold Miner ETF<br />
</td><td>2%<br />
</td><td>#2<br />
</td><td>Exposure to gold miners<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>HGI<br />
</td><td>International Asset Income ETF<br />
</td><td>5%<br />
</td><td>no theme(s)<br />
</td><td>Looking to get more international exposure as well as something to generate some dividend income.<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>IDX<br />
</td><td>Indonesia ETF<br />
</td><td>4%<br />
</td><td>#2 and #4(s)<br />
</td><td>Indonesia has a huge population in a fairly stable country(some terrorism issues), they can also be considered a stuff producer.<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>SLV<br />
</td><td>Silver ETF<br />
</td><td>2%<br />
</td><td>#2<br />
</td><td>Silver is "stuff" and good hedge against inflation.<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>GLD<br />
</td><td>Gold ETF<br />
</td><td>2%<br />
</td><td>#2<br />
</td><td>Gold is "stuff" and good hedge against inflation.<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>TBT<br />
</td><td>Short Treasury Bond ETF<br />
</td><td>7%<br />
</td><td>#1<br />
</td><td>Will go up as yields rise, ie is inverse to bond prices<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>TUR<br />
</td><td>Turkey ETF<br />
</td><td>4%<br />
</td><td>#1 and #2<br />
</td><td>Similar to Indonesia<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>VIPSX<br />
</td><td>Inflation Protect Treasuries<br />
</td><td>5%<br />
</td><td>#1 and #2<br />
</td><td>Treasuries indexed to inflation<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>VTI<br />
</td><td>Total US Markets<br />
</td><td>7%<br />
</td><td>no theme<br />
</td><td>straight up bet in US markets, I used it to give a bit more US exposure to a portoflio short of it.<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>XLU<br />
</td><td>Utilities ETF<br />
</td><td>7%<br />
</td><td>no theme<br />
</td><td>Stable dividend payers<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>XME<br />
</td><td>Metals and Mining ETF<br />
</td><td>2%<br />
</td><td>#2<br />
</td><td>Stable dividend payers<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>IXN<br />
</td><td>Global Technology ETF<br />
</td><td>5%<br />
</td><td>#4<br />
</td><td>I think technology is a good play<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>PSP<br />
</td><td>Private Equity ETF<br />
</td><td>5%<br />
</td><td>no theme<br />
</td><td>Interesting play,a little risky<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>PCY<br />
</td><td>Emerging Market Bond ETF<br />
</td><td>6%<br />
</td><td>#4<br />
</td><td>Should be a fairly stable, with nice growth prospects and a good yield.<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>PUW<br />
</td><td>Progessive Energy ETF<br />
</td><td>2%<br />
</td><td>#3<br />
</td><td>Concentrates on companies using fossil fuel more efficiently<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>PBD<br />
</td><td>Clean Energy ETF<br />
</td><td>2%<br />
</td><td>#3<br />
</td><td>Concentrates on companies using green renewable energy sources<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIO<br />
</td><td>Global Water ETF<br />
</td><td>3%<br />
</td><td>#3<br />
</td><td>Concentrates on companies water treatment and efficient water consumption<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>AAPL<br />
</td><td>Apple<br />
</td><td>4.37%<br />
</td><td>no theme<br />
</td><td>Only stock left ofver<br />
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Cash<br />
</td><td>Cash<br />
</td><td>6.63<br />
</td><td>no theme<br />
</td><td>It's cash!<br />
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-8543776932596180922009-11-10T13:53:00.000-08:002009-11-10T13:53:09.451-08:00Trades for 11/10/09Made 3 new trades today, all in stocks I've been in before.<br />
<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/HURC/profile">HURC </a>@ $15.30<br />
<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ARAY/profile">ARAY</a> @ $5.66<br />
<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/IRE/profile">IRE</a> @ $11.75<br />
<br />
I view <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/IRE/profile">IRE</a> as a speculative play. They are a troubled Irish bank that was down as much as 10%. I'm looking for a bit of a bounce here and will tighten stops as it moves up.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/HURC/profile">HURC</a> and <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ARAY/profile">ARAY</a> are both companies that we punished in the last downturn. Both currently stand at a point with no debt. Should the turn around be real, I think these could move up.<br />
<br />
All positions were initiated with a 10% trailing stop to protect downside and lock in upside, should it occur. I may look at tightening the stops should we see some quick gains.<br />
<br />
This brings me to my current mindset with IRA accounts. In my mind I think the market has rallied too much and is actually set up for a correct. I've thought this since July and have lost ground to the market by having some position on the short side of the market or by simply being in cash. My current philosophy is trade around this uncertainly, by making trades protected by stops to limit the downside.<br />
<br />
Disclosure - links go to <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/">MarketWatch</a> my current employer.bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-14044229792534824402009-11-10T06:44:00.000-08:002009-11-10T06:44:15.347-08:00The 401(k)sBoth Barb and my plans are with Fidelity, and though they both offer slightly different funds the mix is about the same.<br />
<br />
30% in an International Fund<br />
30% in a Growth Fund<br />
20% in a Mid Cap Fund<br />
20% in a Small Cap Fund<br />
<br />
Currently I contribute 7% of my pre-tax income to my plan. In addition to that my company contributes an additional 7%. This company match is VERY good.<br />
<br />
Barb's plan has two option a regular 401(k) option and a Roth 401(k) option. The regular option comes out pre-tax and taxes are paid on all monies when withdrawn. With a Roth 401(k) plan all the money goes in post tax, however no taxes are paid, even on gains, when withdrawn. Since Barb's employer has currently suspended their contribution, we have decided to switch her 6% contribution to the Roth 401(k).<br />
<br />
As mentioned above I contribute 7% and Barb 6%. This lower than what I would like. Ideally I'd like us to each to be able to contribute 10% at a minimum. We've talked about getting to that level in the next couple of years.<br />
<br />
I am pretty hands off with these two accounts. Typically only I re-balance them once a year.<br />
<br />
Barb's plan is up 26.7% this year after a last year's terrible -43.7%.<br />
My plan is up 32.4% this year, compared to last year's -40.4%bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-40559163786188604902009-11-09T13:10:00.000-08:002009-11-09T13:10:52.313-08:00Trades for 11/9/09Bad Trade<br />
<div>Sold QID I bought on 11/5 for a 6% loss. This was a bet on the NASDAQ going down. I had a 6% stop loss set on it that triggered mid morning.<br />
</div><div><br />
</div><div>Good Trade<br />
</div><div>Sold FAS I bought on 11/6 for an 11.75% gain. This was a leverage bet that Financial stocks going to go up. I had a stop in that locked in a 6% gain, but figured I'd book the whole thing near the end of the day.<br />
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</div><div>Trade for Tomorrow?<br />
</div><div>Based on the huge jump in financials today, I though I'd buy some FAZ, on a feeling that there might be some profit taking tomorrow. FAZ is an inverse leveraged bet on Financials, ie if the sector goes down, FAZ goes up. I have a 4% stop loss set on it. This buy is about half the size of the position I sold in FAS today. I'd be happy if I could book 3%-4% here, and would look at locking in gains at that level.<br />
</div>bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-50393094200544214212009-11-09T10:30:00.001-08:002009-11-09T10:45:36.839-08:00Return ComparisonsIn my previous, I posted my annual returns since the start of 2007, but I didn't post how it compared to the markets in general. I use two S&P indexes as benchmarks for myself. They are the <a href="http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_500/2,3,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.html">S&P 500</a> and the <a href="http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_gbl1200/2,3,2,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.html">S&P Global 1200</a>. I picked these because the S&P 500 is a fairly good indicator of the U.S. markets in general. I picked the Global 1200 because, well, it's really a global context working in and I felt it makes sense to compare myself to the world in general. Note: I compare to both indexes TR or Total Return, which includes dividends.<div><br /></div><div>Here's how I've stacked up against those markets:</div><div><br /></div><div>Year<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>Ben<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>S&P 500<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>S&P Global 1200</div><div>2007<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>+<span class="Apple-style-span" style="white-space: pre;">15.34%<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>+5.49%<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>+10.23% </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="white-space: pre;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="white-space: normal; ">2008<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="white-space: pre;">-45.55% -37.88%<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> -40.68% </span></span></span></div><div>2009(as of 11/6/09)<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>+27.45% <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>+20.85% <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>+26.98% </div><div><br /></div><div>Cumulative Return<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="white-space: pre;">-16.14% -20.71%<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> -20.52%</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="white-space: pre;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="white-space: pre;">The Good News, I'm beating the markets!</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="white-space: pre;">The Bad News, I've still lost money!</span></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="white-space: pre;"><br /></span><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="white-space: pre; "><br /></span><div><br /></div></div>bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1913034053837311708.post-40827721946544477932009-11-09T09:26:00.000-08:002009-11-09T10:24:44.499-08:00Background and Current StateIn late 2006, my wife and I decided to fire our financial planner and start to keep track of our own retirement funds. This included old 401k accounts that we rolled into IRAs and our current companies 401ks. Currently, we have no investments outside of though 2 IRAs and 2 401ks.<div><br /></div><div>Taking 01/01/2007 as a starting point, here are the annual return of all 4 combined accounts</div><div><br /></div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>-2007 : +15.34%</div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>-2008 : -45.55%</div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>-2009(as of 11/6/9) : +27.45%</div><div><br /></div><div>Note: I currently am using Google docs to keep track of things. I use the XIRR function to account for monthly inflow to the 401k accounts.</div><div><br /></div><div>Currently, I've been lagging the markets for the last few months, as I've taken a more conservative bent on the markets. I'm under the impression that markets have run too far, too fast given underlying fundamentals. However the market seems to be providing us with evidence to the contrary.</div><div><br /></div><div>In my next post I'll talk more about the make up and current status of the 4 accounts, as well as provide more about my thoughts and strategy.</div><div><br /></div><div>Meanwhile here is a link to an interesting article I read on one of my favorite financial sites on the web, <a href="http://www.minyanville.com/">Minyanville</a>. In it writer John Maudlin discusses the possible approaches to getting out of this financial mess, or ways we could make it worse, <a href="http://www.minyanville.com/articles/recession-argentina-japan-brazil-AIG-GM-fannie-freddie-banks-bubbles-credit-mortgage-housing-Mauldin/index/a/25332">All America's Possible Futures</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div> </div>bmusichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05034644794882925391noreply@blogger.com0